Tech Talk Article 12
"Leaping To Conclusions"
by David Reher
Page 2

I've seen it all, something new comes along.

        We were dyno testing our race motor before the AutoZone Winternationals when it suddenly made one of those very expensive noises that usually means big trouble. "Dropped a valve!" someone declared. "Broke a pin!" said another. Everyone had a theory as we removed the heads and found an unfamiliar piece of metal in a cylinder. Then the conclusions flowed like a Texas flash flood: "You left the covers off the carburetors - that's a bottle cap that went down the manifold." We had at least 20 different explanations for the failure.

        Finally we discovered the truth: A balance weight had come off one of the blades of the dyno room fan. That weight had stayed in place for 15 years and several thousand dyno pulls. It waited until we were testing our No. 1 engine before it got sucked down a carburetor venturi. Everyone felt a little sheepish when further inspection revealed several more loose weights on the fan blades.

        The point is that we had jumped from faulty assumptions to erroneous conclusions. We hadn't considered all of the facts before making a judgment. We wanted tidy explanations for the problem, so we invented 
them.

        Racers want positive results, even if it sometimes requires jumping through logical hoops to reach them. When you invest the time and money to test, there is a strong predisposition to believe that you made progress - even if that belief requires a little self-deception. You really want to believe that gear ratio change or the new camshaft made a difference. But a week later when 35 cars are pounding down the same piece of asphalt, you may have to confront the reality that your test wasn't valid and the performance improvement was imaginary.

        Years ago I saw a sign on a garage wall that offered excellent advice: "When the results disagree with the theory, believe the results and invent a new theory." Instead, we often distort the results to support a preconceived theory. A conclusion that is based on an emotional need will seldom improve a race car's performance.

        For thousands of years, it was accepted as fact that the sun and planets revolved around the Earth. Religion and philosophy supported the belief that man was the center of the universe, and complex theories were devised to explain the apparent motion of the heavens. But an 

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